By Jonathan Custer | October 23, 2026
BloombergNEF cut its 2026 world solar build forecast to 584 GW, 10.8% below an estimated 655 GW in 2025, according to BloombergNEF as reported by pv magazine USA on 15 October 2026. This is the first annual decline in BloombergNEF’s series from 2016. The forecast has fallen from 753 GW in BNEF’s first-quarter 2025 outlook to 640 GW in July 2026 to 584 GW now. China accounts for more than the whole decline: its 2026 forecast falls 112 GW, to 271 GW from 383 GW in 2025, while the world total falls 71 GW. Only 71.8 GW was installed in China in the first half, down 66.2%. The rest of the world rises from 272 GW to 313 GW, though about 30 GW of that 41 GW gain is BNEF’s unallocated buffer. BNEF expects 618 GW in 2027 and 820 GW in 2036.
India’s non-fossil capacity is projected at 525.2 GW in 2030, with solar at 353.2 GW, 67.3% of the total, according to projections compiled by Bloomberg from CEA, MNRE and BloombergNEF. Solar was 49.4 GW in 2021 and is projected at 173.3 GW in 2026. Solar adds 82.8% of the capacity added between 2021 and 2030. Coal still supplied 68% of India’s power in April to July and almost half of India’s coal plants held less than a quarter of required stocks on 10 October (Ministry of Power, via Bloomberg).
US module production is projected at about 75 GW in 2028 from about 35 GW in 2025, passing the 43 GW of annual demand TOYO cites from 2026, according to Terawatt PV Research’s Solar Manufacturing USA Quarterly as charted by pv magazine USA. Texas is projected to rise from about 4% of US output in 2024 to about 37% in 2028 and become the largest hub. Ohio falls from about 46% to about 16%. Terawatt argues that contracted pipelines, not a flat demand figure, will set production levels.
China’s installations fell 112 GW in BNEF’s forecast, taking China’s share of the world build from 58.5% to 46.4%. Named markets do not replace the lost volume: about 30 GW of the 41 GW gain outside China is BNEF’s unallocated buffer. If India’s solar pipeline and US manufacturing both reach their projected levels while China’s build stays near 271 GW, module demand shifts from China to markets with different trade rules and local content requirements.
Sources: BloombergNEF, via pv magazine USA, 15 October 2026; Bloomberg (CEA, MNRE, BloombergNEF); Ministry of Power (India), via Bloomberg; Terawatt PV Research, via pv magazine USA, 13 October 2026.
Prepared by Custer Contexo Group | Market Intelligence | October 23, 2026