Depression Data But Depression Not The Base Case

By Gary Evans and Jon Custer Custer Consulting Group Summary The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now is estimating a -34.9 percent Q2 GDP print, which is 3.5x the largest quarterly decline in the post-WWII economy If realized, the 11.3 percent non annualized first-half GDP collapse in 2020 will approach the worse year of the Great Depression, … More Depression Data But Depression Not The Base Case

German March Industrial Output Plunges Over 9 Percent

In context, not surprising given global economy was shuttered.  What matters is the strength of the rebound as economies reopen. OUCH! German Industrial Production had historic plunge in March. Total industrial output – comprised of output in manufacturing, energy and construction – crashed 9.2% in March from Feb. Industrial output fell 11.6% YoY. pic.twitter.com/8D0ApYmP1p — … More German March Industrial Output Plunges Over 9 Percent

Pressure Builds On China Based Supply Chains

By Gary Evans and Jon Custer Custer Consulting Group The global pandemic is putting ever more pressure on global supply chains. Reuters reports the Trump administration is now “turbocharging” its efforts to punish China in an attempt to remove global supply chains from the Middle Kingdom through, among other things, the implementation of new tariffs. … More Pressure Builds On China Based Supply Chains

U.S. GDP Declines 4.8% Annualized In Q1 2020

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter reflected negative contributions from personal … More U.S. GDP Declines 4.8% Annualized In Q1 2020