Depression Data But Depression Not The Base Case

by Jonathan Custer

By Gary Evans and Jon Custer Custer Consulting Group Summary The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now is estimating a -34.9 percent Q2 GDP print, which is 3.5x the largest quarterly decline in the post-WWII economy If realized, the 11.3 percent non annualized first-half GDP collapse in 2020 will approach the worse year of the Great Depression, …

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Aggregate Job Losses By Industry

by Jonathan Custer

Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 20.5 million in April, and the unemployment rate rose to 14.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. Employment fell sharply in all major industry sectors, with particularly heavy …

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German March Industrial Output Plunges Over 9 Percent

by Jonathan Custer

In context, not surprising given global economy was shuttered.  What matters is the strength of the rebound as economies reopen. OUCH! German Industrial Production had historic plunge in March. Total industrial output – comprised of output in manufacturing, energy and construction – crashed 9.2% in March from Feb. Industrial output fell 11.6% YoY. pic.twitter.com/8D0ApYmP1p — …

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