Carmakers Grew 2%, Battery Materials 33%, Charging 37%: Automotive Growth Is in Electrification

The 40 vehicle makers in the Custer composite grew 2.0% on a year in 2Q’26. Battery materials grew 33.0% and charging 36.5%. The growth in automotive is in electrification, and October’s registrations show the buyers moving the same way.

Global Economy

Fuel is the price that matters this quarter. Brent crude fell 13.3% in the week to 6 November and traded near US$93 a barrel on 9 November, against about US$62 a year earlier (Trading Economics). Crude costs about half as much again as a year ago, and October’s registrations below are a month of car buying at that price. China’s producer prices rose 5.7% on a year in October (National Bureau of Statistics).

Vehicle Sales and Production

New car markets in Europe grew a little in October and electric cars took most of the growth. Germany registered 254,492 cars, up 1.7%, of which 94,086 were battery electric, up 79.5%, a 37.0% share against 21.0% a year earlier (Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt; Chart 1). France registered 149,340, up 7%, with battery electric cars at 41% against 24% (AAA Data). The United Kingdom registered 152,730, up 5.4%, with 48,858 battery electric cars, up 32.7%, a 32.0% share against 25.4%, while petrol fell to 37.2% (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders). In China the market shrank: passenger car retail fell 25% on a year in October to 1.693 million, new energy vehicle retail fell 10% to 1.148 million, and new energy vehicle wholesale rose 12% to a record 1.807 million (China Passenger Car Association, preliminary). Wholesale ran 659,000 ahead of retail in the month.

Electric Vehicles and Batteries

World electric vehicle sales rose 5.8% to 16.06 million in January to September. The growth is outside China: 7.33 million, up 30.0%, with Europe up 32.2% to 3.95 million and Asia outside China up 74.7% to 1.50 million, while China fell 8.6% to 8.73 million and North America 25.2% to 1.12 million (SNE Research, 4 November; Chart 2). Sales outside China were 45.7% of the world total. Battery use rose 19.7% to 994.5 GWh over the same nine months, faster than vehicle sales because capacity per vehicle rose, and seven Chinese battery makers held 73.0% of it, up 3.5 points (SNE Research, 2 November).

Automotive Semiconductors and Electronics

The Custer composites show where the revenue growth is (header chart). Of the 173 automotive companies in the database, the 40 vehicle makers grew 2.0% on a year in 2Q’26 (3/12) on US$713.1 billion of revenue, and the 18 pure-play electric vehicle makers 13.3%. The 12 autonomous driving and driver assistance companies grew 32.6%, the 25 battery materials suppliers 33.0% and the 15 charging companies 36.5%. The 31 parts and components makers grew 6.5% in 2Q’26 and 2.7% in 3Q’26, the first automotive tier with September-quarter filings. All 173 companies grew 14.8%.

Parts and Materials

Battery materials grew faster than batteries. The composite’s 3/12 rose from 2.7% in 3Q’25 to 11.9%, 17.2% and 33.0% in the three quarters since, while battery use grew about 20% (SNE Research). The difference is price and mix: lithium iron phosphate took 65.5% of cathode use in January to September, from 60.8%, and outside China its share rose from 21.1% to 35.2% (SNE Research).

Global Automotive Supply Chain Growth

In electronics the growth narrows at each step down the chain. In automotive it runs the other way: the vehicle makers at the top grew 2%, and every electrification tier beneath them grew between 13% and 37%. October’s registrations say the buyers are moving with it, with fuel at US$90 to US$100 a barrel. The test is the oil price: if Brent holds below US$90 through the first quarter and the German and French battery electric shares stay above a third, the shift is structural; if the shares fall back with the fuel price, it was fuel. The third-quarter composites update as filings complete. Contact Jon Custer for an update.

Sources

• Custer Contexo Group company database, company-reported quarterly revenue in US dollars at quarterly average exchange rates, matched samples; Business Outlook Automotive charts, 6 November 2026 (composites to 2Q’26; parts and components to 3Q’26).
• Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt, October 2026 registrations, 4 November 2026. AAA Data (France), October 2026 registrations, via Motor1, 4 November 2026. Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, October 2026 registrations, 5 November 2026.
• China Passenger Car Association, preliminary October 2026 retail and wholesale, via CnEVPost, 4 November 2026.
• SNE Research: global electric vehicle sales, January to September 2026 (4 November 2026); electric vehicle battery use, January to September 2026 (2 November 2026); cathode material use, January to September 2026 (via Business Outlook Automotive charts, 6 November).
• Trading Economics, Brent crude, week to 6 November and 9 November 2026. National Bureau of Statistics of China, producer prices, October 2026.