Category: Economy

Labor Market Recovery Slowing, 53% Of COVID Job Losses Have Been Recovered

October 4, 2020

53% of COVID private sector jobs losses have been recovered (Chart 2) Total private-sector payrolls are still down 7.4% since January (Chart 3) Service-providing jobs have been hit disproportionally hard, falling 7.8% since January (Chart 3) Goods producing jobs only make up 16.7% of private-sector employment (Chart 4) The Computer & Electronic Products sector employment … More Labor Market Recovery Slowing, 53% Of COVID Job Losses Have Been Recovered

Reading PMIs: A Cautionary Note

September 24, 2020

The flash Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI) have just been released by Markit, which shows the manufacturing sectors in the U.S. and Europe continue a strong rebound.   IHS Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI™ Manufacturers indicated the fastest improvement in operating conditions since January 2019 in September, as highlighted by the IHS Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing … More Reading PMIs: A Cautionary Note

Computer & Electronic Product Output Continues To Outperform

September 20, 2020

Summary Industrial Production (IP) rose for its fourth consecutive month after March and April’s sharp contraction (Chart 1) IP remains 7.6 percent below its December 2019 level (Chart 1) Durable Manufacturing output was up 0.7 percent in August, led by Computers and Aerospace products (Chart 2) Computer & Electronic Products (CEP) continue to significantly outperform … More Computer & Electronic Product Output Continues To Outperform

COTD: COVID Growth Impact – Statista

June 9, 2020

COTD:  Chart of the Day The World Bank published its latest Global Economic Prospects report on Monday, providing us with another glimpse of the expected economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to its revised forecasts, the global economy will shrink by 5.2 percent this year, which would mark the deepest recession since World War II. “This is … More COTD: COVID Growth Impact – Statista

Depression Data But Depression Not The Base Case

May 11, 2020

By Gary Evans and Jon Custer Custer Consulting Group Summary The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now is estimating a -34.9 percent Q2 GDP print, which is 3.5x the largest quarterly decline in the post-WWII economy If realized, the 11.3 percent non annualized first-half GDP collapse in 2020 will approach the worse year of the Great Depression, … More Depression Data But Depression Not The Base Case

German March Industrial Output Plunges Over 9 Percent

May 6, 2020

In context, not surprising given global economy was shuttered.  What matters is the strength of the rebound as economies reopen. OUCH! German Industrial Production had historic plunge in March. Total industrial output – comprised of output in manufacturing, energy and construction – crashed 9.2% in March from Feb. Industrial output fell 11.6% YoY. pic.twitter.com/8D0ApYmP1p — … More German March Industrial Output Plunges Over 9 Percent

U.S. GDP Declines 4.8% Annualized In Q1 2020

April 29, 2020

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter reflected negative contributions from personal … More U.S. GDP Declines 4.8% Annualized In Q1 2020

The Macroeconomy and COVID-19

April 21, 2020

By Gary Evans and Jon Custer Here’s some very good background from Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation. It helps in understanding how the economy may look on the other side.  These are mainly British economists, including  George Magnus, world class and who I worked with at UBS.  A must listen and read, folks.