Just a quick note on what we believe has been one of the largest factors, along with globalization to the disinflationary forces over the past 30 years. That is the secular decline in the price of semiconductor prices. Semiconductors are the basic building block of today’s economy, as was oil during the industrial revolution. … More Is Secular Deflation Over In The Computer & Electronics Sector?
53% of COVID private sector jobs losses have been recovered (Chart 2) Total private-sector payrolls are still down 7.4% since January (Chart 3) Service-providing jobs have been hit disproportionally hard, falling 7.8% since January (Chart 3) Goods producing jobs only make up 16.7% of private-sector employment (Chart 4) The Computer & Electronic Products sector employment … More Labor Market Recovery Slowing, 53% Of COVID Job Losses Have Been Recovered
Summary Industrial Production (IP) rose for its fourth consecutive month after March and April’s sharp contraction (Chart 1) IP remains 7.6 percent below its December 2019 level (Chart 1) Durable Manufacturing output was up 0.7 percent in August, led by Computers and Aerospace products (Chart 2) Computer & Electronic Products (CEP) continue to significantly outperform … More Computer & Electronic Product Output Continues To Outperform
By Gary Evans and Jon Custer Custer Consulting Group The global pandemic is putting ever more pressure on global supply chains. Reuters reports the Trump administration is now “turbocharging” its efforts to punish China in an attempt to remove global supply chains from the Middle Kingdom through, among other things, the implementation of new tariffs. … More Pressure Builds On China Based Supply Chains
Interesting piece in Forbes today about the cross-currents caused by the COVID crisis. Here are the money quotes: certain segments are experiencing a boom, especially technology companies the electronics segment has benefited from the outbreak because of a surge in buying by both consumers and businesses in electronics equipment uncertainty about the pandemic, the … More Uncertain Outlook For The Electronics Industry
Authors: Gary Evans Jon Custer The following are the curves we are monitoring before even thinking about the path and date of the global economic recovery. At Wednesday’s White House briefing, Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-diseases expert and the face of the U.S. … More The Future Of Supply Chains And The Curves That Matter Most
China’s budding economic recovery provides not only provides some relief to global manufacturing but also insight and guidance into a timeframe when the rest of the world’s economy will restart. Real-time indicators show that China is re-starting its industrial complex…Clearly, the re-start is at an early stage, but things are gradually improving. — Sanford C. … More China Restarts Economy
The U.S. COVID-19 curve is going vertical as the virus spreads and new cases are finally being counted as testing is ramped up. Though political pressure is building to “open the economy,” we believe the economy will not begin to improve until serval weeks after the rate of change of these curves turns negative. Italy … More When Will The Economy Begin To Recover?
An IPC survey of 101 companies found that 22 percent expect the coronavirus to result in fewer new product introductions this year. Supply Shock On average companies are reporting a five-week delay on receiving component shipments from their suppliers. Around 50 percent of respondents don’t expect business to return to normal until July. Delays on … More Fewer Production Launches Expected This Year – IPC
The Saudi-Russian Oil War is going to cause crude oil prices to collapse. Saudi Arabia plans to increase oil output next month, going well above 10 million barrels a day, as the kingdom responds aggressively to the collapse of its OPEC+ alliance with Russia. …“This is going to get nasty,” said Doug King, a hedge … More Oil Prices Set To Collapse