Global Macro

“The European Union borders and the Schengen borders will be closed”

March 16, 2020 by Jonathan Custer

It’s becoming pretty clear, at least to us, that the world is going to look much different on the other side of this crisis. Diminished global supply chains and more nationalism. Slower growth and higher inflation. The speed and trajectory will depend on the outcome of the November presidential election. Macron’s full address for those …

U.S. February PMI Comes In At 50.1

March 2, 2020 by Jonathan Custer

The latest report is somewhat meaningless until we see how the coronavirus plays out in the United States. Nevertheless, U.S. manufacturers said business began to significantly slow in February as supply bottlenecks caused by the coronavirus hampered their ability to get parts. The February PMI® registered 50.1 percent, down 0.8 percentage point from the January …

Tracking China’s Recovery With Alternative Data

February 28, 2020 by Jonathan Custer

Using YoY percentages to gauge economic activity, the Feb 26 median of intracity travel among China's 50 largest cities was down 33% from 2019, and down 43% from 2020 pre-LNY. pic.twitter.com/A9T7ZdOA3i — Exante Data (@ExanteData) February 27, 2020 Alternative data is increasingly being used as a way to get an edge on financial and commodity …