China NEV Exports Surge 160% as Lithium Falls Below 100,000 Yuan

By Jonathan Custer | October 22, 2026

China’s new energy vehicle exports rose 160% to 571,000 units in September while NEV sales inside China fell 9.4% to 1.252 million, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), as reported by CnEVPost. Total vehicle sales fell 8.4% to 2.956 million. NEVs were 61.6% of all vehicle sales, the third month above 60%. January to September, NEV exports reached 4.006 million, up 130%, and exports took 31% of NEV sales in September against 14% a year earlier.

China’s lithium futures fell to 98,820 yuan a ton on 15 October, about 38.5% below the level of about 160,700 on 31 August, according to the Guangzhou Futures Exchange as charted and reported by Bloomberg. The contract fell about 16% in the week of 12 to 15 October alone. Bloomberg cites concerns over EV and storage demand, the EU hybrid deal and a bearish consensus. Goldman Sachs forecasts surpluses in the next two years. Lithium has lost more than a third of its value since 31 August, cutting cell material costs for battery buyers.

China’s EV battery installations reached 87.2 GWh in September, up 14.7% on the year and 10.4% on August, according to the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance (CABIA) as reported by CnEVPost. LFP was 85.5% of installations. Battery output rose 57.3% to 237.8 GWh, energy-storage battery sales rose 104.4% and battery exports grew 64.5% to 44.0 GWh. Output grows almost four times as fast as vehicle installations, so storage and exports now take the surplus cells.

China’s hybrid exports to the EU tripled to US$7.5 billion in the first half of 2026 from US$2.5 billion a year earlier, according to Chinese customs data as charted by Reuters. In the second quarter, hybrids at US$4.51 billion overtook battery-electric exports of US$3.35 billion to the EU. Chinese brands held 26.3% of Europe’s plug-in hybrid sales in the second quarter, up from 1.7% in the first quarter of 2024 (Schmidt Automotive Research, via Reuters).

Exports are rising while the vehicle market shrinks: September vehicle sales fell 8.4%, lithium is down 38.5% from late August, and battery output is growing nearly four times as fast as vehicle installations. If EU tariffs or trade terms cap hybrid import volumes, the tripling of hybrid exports to the EU would stall.

Sources: CAAM, via CnEVPost; Guangzhou Futures Exchange, via Bloomberg; CABIA, via CnEVPost; Chinese customs data and Schmidt Automotive Research, via Reuters.

Prepared by Custer Contexo Group | Market Intelligence | October 22, 2026