Chip Sales Rose 147% on a Year in September, Far Ahead of Factory Activity

by Jonathan Custer

DRAM revenue rose mostly on price in the third quarter, while bit shipments grew about 4% on the quarter.

Semiconductors and the Global Economy

Year-on-year growth in world chip sales rose every month from June to September, reaching 146.8% in September (SIA and WSTS, 3 November; Chart 1). The September figure is a three-month average of US$172.6 billion covering July to September, so it equals one-third of third-quarter sales. Third-quarter sales totaled US$517.7 billion, up 24.1% on the second quarter (SIA, 3 November).

Column chart of world semiconductor sales growth on a year: 123.6% in June, 135.1% in July, 144.3% in August and 146.8% in September 2026.
Chart 1. Chip sales growth on a year, June to September 2026
Change on the same month a year earlier, three-month averages, each month as first reported.
Source: Semiconductor Industry Association and WSTS, monthly releases of 6 August, 4 September, 5 October and 3 November 2026. Chart: Custer Contexo Group.

The series is in dollars, so price and volume cannot be separated.

Growth on a year in September, on the three-month average, was above 70% in every region: the Americas 191.7%, Asia Pacific and all other regions 141.4%, China 124.9%, Europe 102.5% and Japan 73.4% (SIA, 3 November). China’s three-month growth on a year was 123.6% in July, 131.3% in August and 124.9% in September (SIA, 4 September, 5 October and 3 November).

Factory activity appears to have moved far less. The three-month average of the J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was 4.0% above its year-earlier level in September and 3.5% above in October (Chart 2; Custer Contexo Group calculation). Both are three-month ratios to a year earlier, but the PMI is a survey index and chip sales are dollar revenue, so the gap shows direction and rough scale rather than a like-for-like comparison.

The October reading was 52.6, down from 53.0 in September (S&P Global).

Line chart, 2005 to 2026. The semiconductor sales ratio rises to 2.47 in September 2026. The PMI ratio swings above and below the 1.00 line and reads 1.04 in October 2026.
Chart 2. Semiconductor sales and PMI momentum, 2005 to 2026
Each line is a 3/12 ratio: a three-month average compared with the same three months a year earlier. The gray line marks 1.00, and a reading above it means growth on a year. Semiconductor sales run to September 2026 and the PMI to October 2026.
Source: S&P Global and J.P.Morgan (Global Manufacturing PMI); Semiconductor Industry Association and WSTS (semiconductor sales); Custer Contexo Group calculation. Chart: Custer Contexo Group.

DRAM Revenue and Price

Counterpoint Research puts third-quarter DRAM revenue at approaching US$200 billion.

Quarter on quarter, DRAM revenue rose about 31% (Custer Contexo Group calculation from Counterpoint’s rounded figures), while bit shipments rose about 4%. That implies a price per gigabit about 26% higher (Custer Contexo Group estimate; Chart 3). Both figures are quarter on quarter, so the 26% is also a quarter-on-quarter estimate. Most of the gain came from price rather than volume.

Bar chart of the change on the quarter: DRAM revenue about 31%, bit shipments about 4%, and price per gigabit about 26% (calculated).
Chart 3. DRAM revenue, bit shipments and price per gigabit, third quarter 2026
Change from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2026.
Source: Counterpoint Research, Global Memory Tracker Q3 2026, insight published 5 November 2026. Revenue change: Custer Contexo Group calculation from Counterpoint’s rounded figures. Price per gigabit: Custer Contexo Group calculation, the revenue ratio divided by the bit ratio (1.31 / 1.04). Chart: Custer Contexo Group.

SIA’s October figures are due in early December, judging by its recent release dates.

Sources

  • Semiconductor Industry Association and World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS), monthly and regional releases of 6 August, 4 September, 5 October and 3 November 2026.
  • SIA and WSTS, “Year-to-Date Global Semiconductor Sales Top $1 Trillion Through August,” 5 October 2026 (August figures).
  • S&P Global and J.P.Morgan, Global Manufacturing PMI, October 2026.
  • Counterpoint Research, Global Memory Tracker Q3 2026, insight published 5 November 2026.
  • Custer Contexo Group calculations: the three-month PMI and semiconductor ratios (Chart 2), and the quarter-on-quarter revenue change and price-per-gigabit change (Chart 3).