Commodities

When Will The Economy Begin To Recover?

March 23, 2020 by Jonathan Custer

The U.S. COVID-19 curve is going vertical as the virus spreads and new cases are finally being counted as testing is ramped up. Though political pressure is building to “open the economy,” we believe the economy will not begin to improve until serval weeks after the rate of change of these curves turns negative. Italy …

Waiting For The Rebound, Rationality Shall Prevail

March 10, 2020 by Jonathan Custer

The U.S. stock market was an accident waiting to happen as valuations were historically excessive before the coronavirus struck. Moreover, markets are very distorted due to all the government intervention and the Federal Reserve’s extraordinary monetary policy since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). The traditional economic signals extracted from the financial markets are no longer …

Oil Prices Set To Collapse

March 7, 2020 by Jonathan Custer

The Saudi-Russian Oil War is going to cause crude oil prices to collapse. Saudi Arabia plans to increase oil output next month, going well above 10 million barrels a day, as the kingdom responds aggressively to the collapse of its OPEC+ alliance with Russia. …“This is going to get nasty,” said Doug King, a hedge …