The U.S. COVID-19 curve is going vertical as the virus spreads and new cases are finally being counted as testing is ramped up. Though political pressure is building to “open the economy,” we believe the economy will not begin to improve until serval weeks after the rate of change of these curves turns negative.
It’s too early to tell, but it does appear Italy is turning the corner in arresting the spread of the virus but is still probably a few months away before restarting its economy.
We suspect the case curve in the U.S. continues to accelerate and begins to turn down in mid-May and we maintain our best guess the economy turns up by late summer.
Commodity prices and interest rates have fallen significantly, providing manufacturers with an opportunity to lock in low prices and interest rates as they wait for the economic recovery.
We suspect the massive monetization of this year’s expected $4 trillion deficit budget will eventually unleash some monetary inflation.
Source: True Economics
Here’s a tweet citing Jason Kenney, the Premier of Alberta, Canada, that viral infections will peak in 4-5 weeks, which is within our estimated timeframe.
The peak is important, yes; but the day after the peak is the day with the second most cases ever. We need to be down the curve before we are safe. https://t.co/IM0icolJ13
— Ronald Klain (@RonaldKlain) March 24, 2020