Electronics Manufacturing Daily Briefing

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See attached market intelligence Executive Briefing: Electronics Manufacturing Executive Briefing

Global Economy

US producer prices rose 1.3% in September, the largest gain since March 2022, and 6.3% year on year, with gasoline up 20.3% and diesel fuel up 21% (US Bureau of Labor Statistics, via Reuters). US retail sales rose 0.8% in September after a revised 1.3% in August, led by a 6.4% increase at gas stations, while control-group sales rose 0.1% (Commerce Department, via Bloomberg).

The IMF projects world growth quickening to 3.4% in 2027 from an estimated 3.1% this year (International Monetary Fund, via Bloomberg). The Custer Electronic Equipment Composite of 213 suppliers grew 15.1% on a 12/12 basis to 2Q26, in nominal US$, against the IMF’s 2026 estimate of 3.1% real world GDP growth (Chart 1). The economic readings are below (Table 1).

 

Economy	Indicator	Latest	Comparison	Source
United States	Producer prices, September	+1.3% month on month	+6.3% year on year	BLS, via Reuters
United States	Retail sales, September	+0.8%	+1.3% in August, revised	Commerce Department, via Bloomberg
United States	Business inventories, August	+0.4%	+0.9% in July	Census Bureau, via Reuters
United Kingdom	GDP, August, month on month	+0.1%	+0.4% in July	ONS, via Bloomberg
Euro Area	Industrial production, August, month on month	-0.5%	-1.1% year on year	Eurostat, via Trading Economics
Japan	Industrial production, August, month on month	-2.4%	-1.7% flash estimate	METI, via Trading Economics
China	Integrated circuit exports, September	US$45 billion	+136% year on year	Customs, via South China Morning Post

Electronic Equipment Growth

Global smartphone shipments fell 20% year on year in the third quarter, preliminary data show, to their lowest third-quarter level since 2012, as DRAM and NAND shortages raised production costs; Samsung held a 23% share and Apple a record 22% (Counterpoint Research, via DIGITIMES). IDC counted 255.3 million units, down 22.0% (IDC) (Chart 2).

Global AR glasses shipments are forecast to rise from 620,000 units in 2025 to 1.31 million in 2026, up 111.1%, with Meta expected to hold about 20% (TrendForce). US holiday sales are forecast to rise 4.2% to US$1.013 trillion in November and December (National Retail Federation, via Reuters).

Semiconductors and Semiconductor Capital Equipment

TSMC posted a sixth consecutive record quarterly profit, with net profit up 69% to T$763.1 billion (Reuters). It expects 2026 revenue to grow about 44%, up from a previous forecast of more than 40%, kept its 2026 capital spending expectation at US$60 billion to US$64 billion and guided fourth-quarter revenue to US$52.3 billion to US$54.3 billion (Reuters) (Table 2).

Company	Measure	Figure	Change or timing	Source
TSMC	3Q26 net profit	T$763.1 billion	+69%; sixth straight record	Reuters
TSMC	2026 revenue growth expected	About 44%	From more than 40%	Reuters
ASML	Chip-tool shortages	Through 2028	Planned capacity +30% in 2027 and 2028, per an investor	Reuters
China	Integrated circuit exports, first three quarters	Nearly US$302 billion	September US$45 billion, +136%	South China Morning Post
Fujifilm	CMP slurry expansion, Mesa, Arizona	USD 18 million	New line from 2027	Blackridge Research
AMEC	New equipment models, three to five years	102	Nearly CNY13 billion R&D	DIGITIMES

ASML expects chip-tool shortages through 2028; planned 30% capacity additions in 2027 and 2028 will not be enough, an investor said (Reuters, citing Aureus). Chinese technology companies bought more than 1 million NVIDIA gaming and workstation chips this year, the Financial Times reported, with China’s AI chip supply, about 1 million of it made overseas, expected at 3.5 million units in 2026 against demand estimated to far exceed 5 million (Financial Times, via TrendForce).

EMS and ODM Activity

Lincoln International reported seven EMS transactions in Q3 2026, up from three in Q2, and a 20.3% quarterly fall in its EMS Stock Index; average EV/EBITDA fell to 17.3x for the large tier and 18.5x for the mid tier (Lincoln International) (Chart 3).

Six Taiwanese server and networking contract manufacturers booked combined September revenue of NT$2.18 trillion (US$67.3 billion), up 55.9% year on year, led by Foxconn at NT$1.2 trillion (DIGITIMES). Cicor lifted third-quarter sales 6.7% to CHF 170.8 million and order intake 10.7% to CHF 193.2 million, a book-to-bill ratio of 1.13 (Cicor). Cyient DLM grew revenue 26.5% to INR 393.1 crores with a record order book of INR 2,813.7 crores (Cyient DLM). Inission agreed to buy Bavaria Digital Technik for 5.3 MEUR (Inission).

EMS and ODM composite growth was 46.5% on a three-month basis in 2Q26, level with 46.7% in 1Q26 and up from 27.0% in 3Q25, across 39 companies (CCG Master Company List Financials, DERIVED).

Materials and PCB Process Equipment

Copper futures fell 1.33% to US$6.52 a pound on 15 October, a third consecutive session of losses, but were 32.03% above a year earlier (Trading Economics). Zinc fell to US$3,676.65 a tonne, down 3.53% over the month and up 23.68% on the year (Trading Economics). Copper mine restarts tracked by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence amount to almost a million tons of potential annual production by 2030, over 4% of current output (Reuters).

Panasonic Connect North America will demonstrate its NPM-GW placement machine, rated at up to 104,000 components per hour, at SMTA International 2026 (i40 Today), and SAKI launched the 3Di-LS3BX inline 3D bottom-side inspection system (SAKI).

Printed Circuit Boards

The world printed circuit board market grew 16.7% to US$85.8 billion in 2025 from US$73.6 billion in 2024, while rigid copper-clad laminate rose 24.4% to US$18.7 billion and HDI boards 29.4% (Prismark, via Viasion) (Chart 4).

Ichia Technologies’ third-quarter revenue rose 18.3% to NT$3.42 billion, with optical communications seen rising from 6% to 40% of revenue in 2027 (BigGo Finance). LG Innotek targets mass production of AI accelerator FCBGA substrates in 2027 (DIGITIMES), and Unimicron placed NT$2.085 billion of construction orders for a new factory (Unimicron Technology).

End Markets

IDC expects worldwide spending on Open Compute Project-recognized IT equipment of about US$800 billion in 2029, against US$295 billion forecast a year earlier, and US$892 billion in 2030 (IDC, via DIGITIMES). Asian data centre mergers and acquisitions reached US$21.3 billion this year, on track for a record year and more than double 2025’s US$10 billion (Dealogic, via Reuters).

Ericsson reported third-quarter sales of SEK 59.5 billion against SEK 56.2 billion, with organic growth of 7% (Ericsson).

Summary

Semiconductors led the chain at 69.8% on a three-month basis in 2Q26, ahead of EMS at 46.5% and OEMs at 28.7% (CCG Master Company List Financials, DERIVED) (Chart 5).

Components grew 26.5%, PCBs 17.2% and process equipment 16.0%, while materials grew 10.1% across 45 companies (CCG Master Company List Financials, DERIVED).

AI demand and memory costs split the chain. TSMC, Taiwan’s server makers and ASML report record demand and capacity limits, while memory shortages cut smartphone shipments by a fifth and US producer prices rose at the fastest pace since 2022.

We expect semiconductors and EMS to lead through the rest of 2026, with PCBs and materials following as AI server demand works back up the chain, and consumer devices held back by memory costs.

Outline and Synopsis of the Executive Briefing PDF

Day at a Glance and Top Story set out six figures and the story that links them: TSMC expects 2026 revenue to grow about 44% and six Taiwan server and networking makers’ September revenue rose 55.9%, while IDC counts 3Q26 smartphone shipments down 22.0% as component prices rise. Funnel and Outlook trace it from the economy to the supply chain and give three dated calls.

Macro Dashboard and Macro Synopsis cover US producer prices, up 6.3% on the year in September, and Japan’s industrial output, down 2.4% in August. End Markets and Demand Synopsis cover smartphone shipments and data center spending forecasts. Supply Chain and its synopsis cover TSMC, Taiwan’s server makers and ASML’s tool shortages.

Materials covers copper at US$6.52 a pound and zinc at US$3,676.65 a tonne, and the Series page charts Lincoln International’s seven completed EMS deals in Q3 2026, up from three in Q2. Custer’s Supply Chain Index (semiconductors up 1.0 point to 83.5, OEM down 0.5 to 47.8), Custer’s Momentum and the weekly index chart for 9 to 16 October follow. The SWOT slides, Outlook and Roadmap and Actions close with dated events, including Scanfil’s report on 23 October.

Presentations, Tradeshows and Events

The results dates, shows and closings named in the day’s articles are listed below.

Date	Event	Source
23 Oct 2026	Scanfil January-September interim report	Scanfil
23 Oct 2026	NVIDIA Nemotron 3.5 Bolt E4B release	NVIDIA
27 to 29 Oct 2026	SMTA International 2026, Rosemont, Illinois	i40 Today
2 Nov 2026	Inission purchase of Bavaria Digital Technik scheduled to close	Inission
January 2027	SK Hynix aims to finalize high-bandwidth flash specifications	DIGITIMES
21 to 23 Apr 2027	Touch Taiwan, with new packaging and silicon photonics expos	DIGITIMES