Global solar installations will continue double-digit growth as new annual installations in 2020 will reach 142 gigawatts (GW), a 14 % rise over the previous year. That is 7x the total capacity in 2010.
At the beginning of the last decade, there were only 7 countries with more than 1 GW of installed capacity, with most in Europe. Markit expects more than 43 countries to meet that threshold by the end of 2020.
“If the 2010s were the decade of technology innovation, steep cost reductions, large subsidies and dominance by a few markets then 2020 marks the decade of emerging unsubsidized solar, diversification and expansion of solar installation demand across the globe, new corporate entry players and increasing competitiveness versus conventional energy sources.” – Markit
China will continue to lead in the share of new installations. Areas outside of China, which is the world’s leading market, grew by as much as 53% in 2019 and are expected to continue growing double-digit growth. The top 10 solar markets are expected to see their market share fall to 73 %, down from 94% in 2010.
“China will remain in the preeminent position as the overall leader in solar installations. But this decade will see new markets emerging in South East Asia, Latin America and the Middle East. Still, the major markets will continue to be critical for the development of the solar industry, especially as testbeds of technological innovation, policy development, and new business models.” – Markit
Regional highlights from the IHS Markit 2020 Global Photovoltaic Demand Forecast:
China – Solar demand in 2020 will be lower than historic installation peaks of 50 GW in 2017. Demand in China is in a transitional phase as the market moves towards solar being unsubsidized and competing with other forms of generation and there is some lingering uncertainty while awaiting the release of the new 14th Five-Year Plan to be announced next year.
United States – Installations are expected to grow 20% in 2020, consolidating the United States’ position as the world’s second largest market. California, Texas, Florida, North Carolina and New York will be key drivers of U.S. demand growth over the next five years.
Europe – After nearly doubling installations in 2019, Europe is expected yet to continue growing inn 2020, adding more than 24 GW—a 5% increase over 2019. Spain, Germany, Netherlands, France, Italy and Ukraine will be leading sources of demand, accounting for 63% of total EU installations in the coming year.
India – Following a flat year in 2019, due to policy uncertainties and the impact of import duties on solar cells and modules, installations are expected to grow again and surpass 14 GW in 2020. Lower module prices and a large pipeline of projects are expected to spur the return to growth. – Source: Markit
See the full press release here.