The PCB Supply Chain: Where the Cycle Stands

This analysis was prepared for a recent customer presentation and has been updated with the latest company results. It uses Custer Contexo Group’s composites, built from company filings, to show where the PCB supply chain is in the business cycle.

CCG’s main supply-chain composites are all growing, and growth is still speeding up:

• Semiconductors: revenue up 81% year over year in Q2 2026, the fastest rate in CCG data going back to 2000
• PCB fabricators: up 32% in Q1 2026, a record quarter
• Taiwan EMS/ODM: the highest three months of revenue on record, through May 2026
• Process equipment suppliers: up 24% in Q2 2026
• Electronic materials: up 21% in Q2 2026
• Distributors: growth turned positive in 2025 after a two-year inventory correction

CCG reads the cycle with its 3/12 and 12/12 growth rates. 3/12 compares the latest quarter with the same quarter a year earlier; 12/12 compares the last four quarters with the four before. When 3/12 is above 12/12, growth is accelerating. When it falls below, that is usually the first sign of a turn. Today 3/12 is above 12/12 in each of these composites. Semiconductor 3/12 is at 81%, well above the 55.5% peak of the 2010 rebound.

CCG’s 39-sector composites, covering 389 companies, show where the growth is concentrated. From Q1 2024 to Q2 2026, revenue rose 249% at motherboard makers, 144% in battery storage and 119% in IC substrates and advanced packaging, while traditional automakers were flat.

History shows how hard these turns can hit. CCG’s long-run composites show four downturns between 2000 and 2019, none lasting more than two years. The tiers furthest from the end customer swing hardest. In 2009, the electronic materials composite fell 33.5% on a 12/12 basis, against 23.4% for semiconductors. Passive components fell 37.5% in 2001 alone.

The presentation also covers the PCB market itself. World PCB output was about $95 billion in 2024 and about $100 billion in 2025, and China makes 60% of it. Taiwanese companies earned $25.6 billion from PCBs, while $11 billion of boards were made in Taiwan. Taiwan’s 26 largest makers grew 16.1% in 2025.

The presentation covers:

• CCG composites for semiconductors, PCB fabricators, process equipment, materials, EMS and distributors
• 3/12 vs 12/12 momentum by tier, and the business cycle and bullwhip frameworks
• 39 sector composites, with growth and operating-margin rankings
• Long-run composites back to 2000
• World PCB output, growth and China’s share
• The top PCB, IC substrate and automotive PCB makers
• Where boards are made versus who owns the makers
• PCB end markets and technology mix

View the full presentation here: 

CCG_PCB_Supply_Chain_Presentation

CCG_PCB_Supply_Chain_Presentation CCG_PCB_Supply_Chain_Briefing

Sources: Custer Contexo Group composites from company filings; world PCB market data from N.T. Information Ltd.