Smartphones and PCs Both Fall 22% – IDC Sees No Recovery Before 2028

By Jonathan Custer | October 19, 2026

World smartphone shipments fell 22.0% in the third quarter to 255.3 million units, the largest quarterly decline in IDC’s series, according to IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker released 14 October 2026. The prior quarter was 276.3 million and the year-ago quarter 327.3 million. Samsung shipped 57.7 million and Apple 57.2 million, together 45.0% of the market, up from 36.9% a year earlier. OPPO fell 34.5%, vivo 31.5% and Xiaomi 29.2%. IDC puts memory costs up about 350% on the year and does not expect a volume recovery before 2028.

PC shipments fell 22.4% to 55.4 million in the third quarter from 71.3 million, according to Gartner’s preliminary estimates released 12 October 2026. All six largest vendors shipped fewer units: HP Inc. fell 30.9%, Lenovo 22.3%, Dell 26.9% and Acer 11.4%. Apple fell the least, 7.1%, and gained 1.7 share points to 10.5%. Gartner attributes the decline to higher prices and scarce components, not excess inventory, so the drop reflects cost and supply rather than a stock correction.

Counterpoint Research’s preliminary Market Monitor estimates confirm the scale of the smartphone decline. Counterpoint counted a 20% fall in the third quarter, the lowest third quarter since 2012. Samsung and Apple together rose to 45% of shipments from 37%, while Xiaomi fell more than 30% and OPPO and vivo more than 20%. Counterpoint says buyers are keeping devices longer, and Reuters ties the fall to memory prices that rose as AI programs took supply.

Three separate trackers put the smartphone fall at 20% to 22%, and Gartner counts PCs down 22.4%. Phone volumes are 72 million units below a year earlier. That is 72 million fewer phone boards, camera modules and memory packages, a base that IDC does not expect to recover before 2028.

Sources: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, 14 October 2026; Gartner preliminary worldwide PC vendor unit shipment estimates, 12 October 2026; Counterpoint Research Market Monitor, preliminary 3Q26 estimates; Reuters.

Prepared by Custer Contexo Group | Market Intelligence | October 19, 2026